Learning platform
en 
Defensive strength in Qatar
In Figure 1.11, we can observe a scatter plot that is similar to Figure 1.9 and 1.10 from the previous section, but with the addition of dividing the plot into four distinct sections. These sections represent different combinations of possession and attempts: more possession with more attempts, more possession with fewer attempts, less possession with more attempts, and less possession with fewer attempts.
To provide further insight, the number of performances falling into each section and the average points per game (PPG) of each group are displayed outside the chart. This allows us to assess the distribution of performances across these sections and understand the average performance level associated with each combination of possession and attempts.
Overall, the top two sections (where teams made more attempts than their opponents) scored higher PPG than the bottom two sections (where teams registered fewer attempts). The most successful of all four sections was the top-left, where teams had less possession but managed to create more attempts, averaging 1.95 points per game.
These findings reinforce the importance of creating more attempts than the opponent, as discussed in section 1.2. It also suggests that this principle applies irrespective of how possession is distributed, and that the chances of winning can be increased by combining the respective tactical approach with a strong focus on finishing attacks and preventing the opponent from doing the same. This notion is also supported by figures 1.12 and 1.13, which demonstrate that winning teams consistently created more – and conceded fewer – attempts at goal than their opponents.
Figure 1.11 also highlights the superiority of defensive game plans in Qatar. The two sections representing performances with a negative possession differential (forming the left side of the scatter) outperformed the two corresponding sections where performances had positive differentials (right side of the scatter). This suggests that teams with less possession were able to strike a good balance between defensive solidity and offensive effectiveness. Alternatively, these results could also indicate a relative ineffectiveness of possession-based teams in creating scoring opportunities while mitigating the risks generally associated with a high-possession game, such as vulnerability to counter-attacks. The weak correlation between possession and net attempts, as discussed in section 1.3, along with the fact that the team with more possession created more attempts in only 42 out of 64 games, supports this notion.
Finally, teams with less possession but more attempts outperforming teams with higher possession and more attempts could indicate that the chances created by teams spending more time out of possession were of higher quality, such as those stemming from counter-attacks.
Possession-based dominance Down Under
Applying the performances at the FIFA Women’s World Cup Australia & New Zealand 2023™ to the same test (figure 1.14 below) reveals different results. In the women’s competition, the two sections on the right side of the scatter possess the highest PPG averages by a significant margin, again revealing that in this particular tournament it was the teams with more possession that tended to win more games. The most successful section overall was the top right, where teams had both more possession and attempts than their opponents. Their dominant displays resulted in an impressive average of 2.12 PPG.
The conclusions that can be drawn from the women’s competition regarding the correlation between possession and winning, as well as the effectiveness of different playing styles, differ from those of the men’s tournament. Whereas figure 1.11 demonstrated Qatar’s possession-orientated teams’ relative inefficiency, figure 1.14 shows that the women’s teams with possession-heavy statistics prospered in this regard. However, these numbers also indicate a potential inefficiency among teams executing a defensive game plan; this could be due to difficulties in defending for extended periods and transitioning efficiently from defence to attack.
The hypothesis that generating more attempts than the opposition is crucial for both possession-based and defensive styles of play is supported by evidence from both tournaments. Figures 1.15 and 1.16 clearly demonstrate that regardless of the difference in possession between two teams, the winning teams generally outperformed their opponents by creating more scoring opportunities and conceding fewer attempts. This finding highlights the importance of offensive efficiency and defensive solidity in achieving success, regardless of the tactical approach employed.
Summary
Analysing the relationship between possession and success at the two tournaments left unclear results (1.1). Possession-based performances seemed to prosper in Australia and New Zealand, but in Qatar results varied. In 1.2, the study then turned towards net attempts: the number of attempts on target a team makes in relation to their opponent. This metric’s relationship had a clear, positive relationship with success in both competitions. In 1.3, we examined whether possession and attempts were connected. There seemed to be a relationship between the two, with more possession generally amounting to a higher number of attempts. However, the correlation was more substantial at the FIFA Women’s World Cup than the men’s version, highlighting the effectiveness of possession-based performances in Australia and New Zealand. Finally, in this section (1.4), the study assessed how all three variables (possession, attempts and success) interacted in a quadrant analysis. This revealed the dominance of possession-based teams in the women’s competition and the relative success of defensive-orientated teams in the men’s.
Rate your experience
