Part 2: Team profiles and the strategic use of possession

The beauty of football lies in the diverse approaches that teams, clubs, and countries adopt to play the game. One crucial aspect of this is how teams strategically utilise possession. Possession not only allows teams to express their unique style on the pitch but also serves as a vital tool for achieving desired results, particularly at the elite level.

Whether a team aims to dominate possession or employ a counter-attacking approach, the role of possession remains a crucial aspect of any match strategy. In part 2, we delve deeper into the strategic use of possession by teams participating in the FIFA World Cup Qatar™ and FIFA Women’s World Cup Australia & New Zealand™. This analysis takes into account various factors that influence a team’s possession, including their overall playing philosophy, specific match tactics, and the challenges posed by their opponents. By carefully analysing related indicators such as the average possession gap, the match-to-match variation, and the relative strengths of the opposition, we can gradually evaluate how teams incorprated possession into their games.

Possession profiles

A “possession profile” refers to the extent of possession-based dominance and tactical variability exhibited by a particular team. These profiles can range from teams that heavily prioritise possession to those that focus more on defensive strategies. Additionally, they can span from teams that exhibit high consistency in their approach from game to game, to those that display a high level of adaptability.

Examining the possession profiles of the teams in Qatar, Australia, and New Zealand provides valuable insights into the strategic approaches employed by these national teams and crucially also sheds light on the success rates of teams from different categories.

Strategic choices

Determining a team’s best possible match strategy is crucial for coaches, as it can greatly impact their success. The possession profiles of Argentina and Spain, the eventual tournament winners, demonstrate that different teams can effectively employ different approaches in different scenarios. This showcases the versatility of teams when it comes to utilising possession as a strategic tool.

(1/2) Argentina’s possession gap per game, average possession gap for their entire campaign and the distribution based on the six possession categories identified in part 1 (category count).

(2/2) Spain’s possession gap per game, average possession gap for their entire campaign and the distribution based on the six possession categories identified in part 1 (category count).

Argentina’s possession gaps displayed significant variation from game to game, demonstrating their tactical adaptability and versatility in assuming different roles based on the opponent. They had the highest possession percentage in the final group game against Poland (plus 43.3%) and the lowest in the semi-final against Croatia (minus 19.6%), averaging a moderate possession surplus of 13.7% for their campaign.

In contrast, Spain secured the title by consistently adopting a possession-based strategy throughout the tournament. In all seven of their matches, including the final against England, who themselves generally also emphasised ball possession, Spain managed a significantly higher possession percentage than their opponents. This highlights Spain’s ability to maintain their strategic approach regardless of the opposition.

These different possession profiles present intriguing strategic questions for coaches. They must carefully consider whether to adopt a possession-based or defensive style of play, weighing the advantages and disadvantages of each approach. They also need to decide whether to adopt an extreme or more moderate approach to possession (or the lack therof) and consider that approach’s potential risks and rewards. Additionally, coaches must determine whether to prioritise adaptability and adjust their tactics based on the opponent or focus on a consistent strategy throughout the tournament.

Aim

Whereas part 1 uncovered the general relationship between possession and winning matches, part 2 dives deeper into the strategic approaches adopted by individual teams participating at the men’s and women’s FIFA World Cups. The analysis is divided into three main sections.

Part 2.1: The influence of general playing philosophies: Possession-based v. defensive styles of play
Part 2.2: The impact of specific match tactics: Consistency v. adaptability
Part 2.3: The role of opposition strengths: Expected v. actual possession shares

Part 2.1 covers the average possession teams registered across their respective campaigns. This metric provides valuable insights into the overall control each team exerted in the matches they played and allows us to gauge the extent to which teams prioritised possession as a strategic element of their overall playing philosophy. Part 2.2 shifts from the campaign-wide scope to a game-to-game examination, revealing how consistent teams were with their possession and their level of tactical variability. Part 2.3 is dedicated to the opposition’s impact on a team’s ability to sustain possession. The better team with the more skilled players is usually also able to maintain possession and control the game for a longer period of time. To understand the impact of the opposition, this part tests the relationship between a team’s market value and official FIFA ranking and their possession statistics.

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