Oliver Höner on talent predictors

Objective data to back up what scouts and coaches observe on the training pitch can be elusive, especially when they are working with young players. In this Science Explained session, Professor Oliver Höner of the University of Tübingen examines whether a youngster’s motor skills are a strong predictor that they are on the road to professional football.

In recent years, football has become an increasingly data-driven sport. Everyone from journalists to managers now has a wealth of information at their fingertips. Nevertheless, finding hard evidence that talent scouts can use to corroborate their gut feeling is notoriously difficult, especially when they are attempting to gauge the potential of a promising youngster. In this Science Explained session, Professor Höner examines how reliable the German Football Association’s motor-based testing programme has been as an indicator of talent and potential in young players. His presentation is followed by a Q&A, hosted by FIFA’s Dr Paul Bradley.

Set working scientific definitions of talent ID and talent development. Explain which factors identified during the course of the research are relevant when predicting the potential and/or future success of young footballers, and the limitations associated with those indicators. Give a brief survey of other research perspectives in this field and their importance for talent development.

At a group level, both technical and speed-related skills tests are valid for predicting potential in different facets of the game. To that limited extent, tests such as those described here can be a useful tool for talent identification and development. However, they are not sensitive enough for use as the sole basis for predicting the performance of individual players, and are not a substitute for the judgement of coaches and scouts.

Talent ID and development is a very complex business, and the scientific research thus far is limited. Evidence-based analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of talented youngsters can complement the subjective judgement of coaches and, when used this way, it can be useful for players’ development. However, it should be stressed that scientific studies should add to, not replace, the expert eyes of scouts and coaches, and there is still an urgent need for more studies in a number of areas.

Watch presentation

Welcome by Dr Paul Bradley

Part 1: Defining talent and the DFB’s talent development programme

Part 2: The challenges of making predictions

Part 3: Empirical evidence of motor-skill predictors

Part 4: Other perspectives on motor-diagnostic research in football

Part 5: Q&A

Read summary

Part 1: Defining talent and the DFB’s talent development programme
This research focuses on two core questions: which characteristics of talented youth players can help to predict their future performance, and which characteristics should we promote to support players on their way to the top? Before you can answer those questions, you have to define talent, and Höner begins by setting out his working definition. Since the testing he describes here was conducted with players training at "base camps” run by the German Football Association (DFB) or in the youth academies of German professional clubs, he also explains how the DFB’s talent development pyramid operates and how that affected the research sample.

Part 2: The challenges of making predictions
The next part of the session outlines the major challenges inherent in trying to measure talent. First, it is difficult to identify traits that are sufficiently correlated with future performance in football; this challenge is compounded by the fact that those characteristics are sometimes impossible to measure directly. Then you have to allow for the fact that footballers are human beings who develop differently over time. Finally, applying scientific probability statements to individual players in practice is problematic, precisely because they are individual human beings. All this underlines just how difficult it is for scientists and youth coaches to predict the future performance of young players.

Part 3: Empirical evidence of motor-skill predictors
Having outlined the limits of scientific measurements in this area, Professor Höner then sets out the empirical evidence from motor-skills studies designed to measure “speed” abilities and technical football skills. As he explains, the research shows that future Bundesliga players consistently scored higher in these motor tests than the average for their age group, even as early as the U12s. Moreover, when comparing tests conducted with the ball (i.e., dribbling) and without the ball (i.e., agility), those conducted with a ball tended to be more reliable predictors of future success. This highlights the relevance of football-specific skills.

Part 4: Other perspectives on motor-diagnostic research in football
To finish, Professor Höner gives a brief survey of other studies that have sought to investigate the significance of motor-based indicators for talent development in various ways. The studies mentioned include a longitudinal study on youth players, work focused specifically on motor diagnostic tests in female footballers, and research into the impact of the relative age effect and biological maturity. There is also an example of a multi-dimensional study that combined objective motor tests with subjective assessments by coaches. There is an urgent need for more studies in all these areas.

Q&A

00:33
With any prediction, there is an inherent element of error. What is the margin of error in these studies on motor-based skills and their link with talent?

04:38
Can a player who fails to achieve top scores on one indicator compensate for that by excelling in another area? What does this “compensation effect” mean for people whose job it is to identify talent?

07:44
Why did the DFB add subjective diagnostics from coaches to their objective testing?

10:19
Do you consider motor diagnostics as secondary to a coach’s intuition about a talented player, or on a par with it?

12:21
You utilise a number of different assessments in your diagnostic battery. Some of them have been used for decades now. Do you have any plans to develop or modify the motor diagnostics tests you use?

14:46
We always need a reason to assess players. What were the main reasons for using motor diagnostics in the DFB talent development programme?

18:26
How transferrable are the results you’ve presented to other FIFA member associations?

21:28
What would your take-home message to practitioners be with regard to this scientific area?

About the expert

Oliver Höner, PhD, is Full Professor for Sport Science, Director of the Institute of Sports Science and Head of the Department of Sport Psychology and Research Methods at the Eberhard Karls University of Tübingen (Germany). His football-related research addresses topics such as talent identification and development, perceptual cognitive and decision-making skills, coach development, and coaching. Oliver’s dissertation on decision making in football won the German Sport Federation's research award in 2005. Since then, he has led several applied sport science projects, funded by organisations including the German FA (DFB), the DFB Academy and VfB Stuttgart. Oliver is a UEFA A-Licensed coach and Vice-President of the German Association of Football Coaches (BDFL), where he is responsible for sports science and methodology.