Any successful talent development programme relies on the expertise and judgement of accomplished scouts. But what happens if your scouts can’t agree on the potential of youth players? In this Research Brief, Dr Dennis Lüdin of the Swiss Federal Institute of Sport examines whether scouts agree with each other when assessing youngsters, and explores how academies can make their selection criteria more reliable.
Key take-aways
- If your scouts do not agree on the potential of a young player, it is very difficult to make a reliable decision on their future prospects.
- Unfortunately, getting that agreement is extremely difficult, because football is unpredictable and performance is multi-facetted.
- This in turn prompts many scouts to base their judgements on a subjective overall impression rather than objective data.
- Relying on multiple independent assessments, produced according to an agreed set of selection criteria, might make for more reliable selection decisions.
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Part 1: Introduction and aims
Most professionals agree that identifying talent is a complex business, and that performance at youth level is not a reliable indicator of success in the senior game. However, previous studies suggested that there was no such agreement between scouts on what they were looking for in a talented youngster. This study re-examined that conclusion, and looked to generate insights into how scouts approach the task of assessing young players.
Part 2: Methodology and results
The study asked over eighty scouts registered with the Swiss Football Association to rank twenty-four U-12 players (e.g., 12 at each of two tournaments) by their suitability for a talent development programme, and to explain their judgements. The results highlighted a striking lack of consistency in both rankings and approaches. Most glaringly, there was almost no agreement between the scouts on which players showed the most promise, and the majority of the group admitted to assessing players on the basis of their overall impression, rather than objective criteria.
Part 3: Discussion
Dr Lüdin suggests two possible explanations for the lack of agreement between scouts. The first is that football is a highly unpredictable game that is subject to a host of factors beyond a player’s control. For example, if a player’s team is struggling to gain possession, it is very difficult for that player to demonstrate ability on the ball. The second potential reason is that ranking 12 players at once involves analysing a huge quantity of information, which encourages scouts to use an overall assessment rather than scoring dozens of individual skills.
Part 4: Applications and implications
To round off his presentation, Dr Lüdin considers what these findings mean for the future of talent development programmes. As he points out, inconsistent approach to talent selection risks promoting an inefficient system that wastes money. To encourage more reliable decision-making, he suggests that clubs and associations should consider adopting agreed selection policies that have been approved by all relevant stakeholders. He also recommends reducing the burden on scouts by taking multiple independent assessments into account, and asking individual experts to focus on specific attributes rather than giving their overall impressions. These ideas are broadly in line with a previous Research Brief by Dr Tom Bergkamp.
Paper citation
Lüdin, D., Donath L., Romann M. (2023). Disagreement between talent scouts: implications for improved talent assessment in youth football. Journal of Sports Sciences 2023, 41(8), 758-765.