Group-stage review: Trends in possession

And then there were eight. The group stage of the FIFA Arab Cup 2021 concluded with a match between Algeria and Egypt that highlighted some of the best characteristics of a tournament that will be remembered for showcasing just how well football in the region is evolving.

"I enjoyed the intensity of the game. Two teams that worked hard for the whole 90 minutes. They had intensity in the tackles that sometimes you don’t see in Europe. There are some interesting trends and I think the players with personality and a strong mentality will come out as the best in the tournament," commented Arsène Wenger, chair of the Technical Study Group.

Wenger’s team of technical experts in Qatar is led by Steve McClaren, who highlighted not only the achievements of the teams who have progressed to the last eight, but also those of the teams that are developing.

"Mauritania are a great story. They lost their first game but regrouped and only lost to UAE to a very late goal. But they won their final match against Syria, clinching their first victory in the Arab Cup with a late winner, to the huge delight of their supporters," McClaren commented.

A very young and much-changed Saudi Arabia squad will also have gained great experience from their participation, whilst Egypt, Algeria and Morocco all progressed in style, despite not having their Europe-based players available.

Hosts Qatar won all three of their group matches to book their place in the quarter-finals, where they are joined by Tunisia, Oman, the UAE, Morocco, Egypt, Algeria and Jordan.

Unsurprisingly, former Germany and USA national-team manager Jürgen Klinsmann has taken a keen interest in the role of centre-forwards in this tournament. The 1990 World Cup winner said, "We want to see players take the game on, especially centre-forwards. We want them to show leadership, personality and confidence in one-on-ones."

That sentiment was echoed by former Manchester United striker Dwight Yorke, who has been looking at how teams enter the final third and what they do when they get there. "Morocco look creative in attack and resilient in defence. Egypt and Algeria have also been effective at getting into the final third, but I’m looking for more cutting edge and to seeing teams take more risks in that area of the pitch."

An analysis of the formations used in the group stage revealed a strong preference for systems based on four at the back (Table 1). In possession, 4-2-3-1 was the most popular starting formation (15), just ahead of 4-3-3 (11).

Of the eight quarter-finalists, the UAE, Oman, Morocco and Qatar have all been steadfast in their starting formations so far, with the hosts, led by Spanish coach Félix Sánchez, the only side preferring a 5-3-2 (Table 2).

Sánchez has also demonstrated a willingness to recognise when a change is needed though, as noted by Steve McClaren. "In Qatar’s game against Bahrain, their three centre-backs were being pressed high 3v3 by Bahrain’s front three and it really disrupted their ability to build up play. But at half-time, Sánchez changed to a 4-3-3 and it completely altered the course of the match.  Akram Afif moved from a centre-forward position to the left wing, where he had a much greater impact. Tactically, it proved to be the difference between the teams and, ultimately, the winning of the game."

Notably, the data also shows a strong correlation between the teams that changed their starting formation in every match (Saudi Arabia, Mauritania and Palestine) and those that did not progress. Of the eight quarter-finalists, only one – Tunisia – switched between starting with four at the back to three. Syria and Lebanon also utilised the two structures.

Wenger noted that some teams showed a lack of consistency from game to game, with formation and line-up changes being contributory factors.

When it comes to possession, our team has keenly analysed the game states. How long are teams spending in build-up before they break an opposition line and progress the play? How does that compare to their time spent in the final third? And does it look very different when teams are opposed and unopposed?

An analysis of the group stage showed that teams spent most time in the build-up in the middle of pitch, with no pressure applied to the ball (Table 3). This echoed Michel Sablon’s pre-tournament prediction that teams in the region would tend to defend in mid- or low blocks.

Of the eight quarter-finalists, Jordan ranked lowest (14^th out of 16) in terms of % of possession spent in build-up (Table 4). They generally held in a low block, did not press high and did not dominate the ball, but held with six players and attacked with four.

The speed at which teams moved the ball was also noted, with Morocco, Algeria and Qatar showing an appetite to play quickly in order to break lines, in contrast to the UAE, who favoured a more sustained, patient approach, content to build slowly and making the highest average number of individual possessions per possession sequence at 5.1 (Table 7). Jordan’s more direct approach (2.3 individual possessions per possession sequence) was also reflected in their lowest-place ranking in this category.

Wenger noted how players receiving the ball with a closed body position was a key factor in the loss of momentum for some teams, whilst Sablon felt that a better execution of passes would help teams to play forward earlier.

"Passes that do not have the right weight or that go to the foot that forces you to take another touch before you can play forward is something that can be worked on more on the training pitch. It’s these little details that make a big difference, and you can see the impact for teams that do it well," said Sablon.

When a team breaks through a line of the opposition defence, they move into a progression state. In order to progress the play, teams need players to offer to receive and/or perform movements to receive.

In the group stage, Algeria spent the second highest % of time in the ball-progression game state (Table 5). They also boasted the highest number of players offering to receive, with forward Yacine Brahimi proving to be a key influence in their progressions.

Brahimi’s ability to get into the space between the opponent’s defensive and midfield lines has been a key component of Algeria’s attacking play so far. In addition Brahimi is also highly effective at receiving the ball between units 2 and 3 (39) and his all-round play has also caught Dwight Yorke’s eye (Table 8).

“He’s left-footed, creates space and finds solutions to situations. He’s a very good player and stood out in their last group game against Egypt, particularly when Algeria progressed their play in the wide areas.”

While Algeria and Tunisia lead the way in terms of the time spent progressing their play, they are also in the top four in terms of the % of time spent in the final third, with only Egypt and Morocco ahead of them (Table 6).

Coached by Portugal’s Carlos Queiroz, Egypt also put the most crosses into the box in the group stage, with an average of 32 per 90 minutes, closely followed by Morocco on 31.3.

Oman are also in the top five for the % of time spent in the final third, with McClaren noting that there was generally no utilisation of the false 9 role. Instead, the lone centre-forwards have been more inclined to play on the shoulder of the centre-back, looking to play in behind.

Klinsmann, meanwhile, noted that some teams have had a tendency to look for safer options in this area of the pitch, with forward players choosing to pass rather than going one-on-one.

"At times it’s all about passing, passing – I hope to see more personality and see players taking on the ball and opponents more."

When it came to breaking the lines of the opponent’s defence, our football data team measured how teams did this when building up. Did they play through  the lines, did they go around  a block or did they go over  the units?  

The playing style of the UAE was particularly evident. The data shows that they broke the lines substantially more than any other team in build-up, with a strong tendency (61% of their line breaks) to go around  their opponent’s block. Some 33% of the time they went through, while 6% of the time they went over (Table 9). However, it was also observed that typically only the first unit was broken because they didn’t often attempt to break the second line but recirculated the ball.

Morocco played around  their opponents 54% of the time. Whilst Qatar mostly went around  teams (60%), they also went over (21%), often with the intention of releasing the very pacy Akram Afif, an effective player also when the Qataris go through.

Midfielder Abdulaziz Hatem is a key player in this Qatari team with his ability to not only see the opportunity to play between the lines, but to execute it and find his forward players. Sablon also highlighted Tunisia’s Youssef Msanki as being important to his team thanks to his ability to play vertical passes through the last line of defence to release forward players.

In terms of switching play, Morocco achieved good success with this in the group stage (Table 10). Although they did not always use an actual switch to break the lines, they often switched play from one side to the other in order to create a wide area overload.

McClaren was particularly impressed with their ability to switch play, to penetrate wide areas and to create 3v2 overloads using their full-backs. This was a strong feature in their 4-0 victory over Jordan, with right-sided centre-back Badr Benoun very effective at stepping in to switch play across the middle, allowing left winger Bencharki and left-back Mohammed Nahiri to combine in the wide channel and use left attacking midfielder Abdelilah Hafidi to create numerical overloads.

“Bencharki’s positioning was excellent. Sometimes he stayed narrow to pin their full-back in, with Nahiri going full throttle down the outside channel. Hafidi was able to get into the space in the inner channel, between the lines, while the centre-forward, Azaro, pinned the centre-back on that side. It was very effective.

“But they mixed it up too. Bencharki pulled wide with Hafidi coming onto the full-back, overloading him 2v1, and then Nahiri made his runs into the inner channel. They were great rotations and it was good to watch,” said McClaren.

Jordan ranked lowest for switches of play, again highlighting their inclination to be more direct, playing longer forward passes. Switching play to release their full-backs into their highest attacking line was also a tactic used effectively by Tunisia, who proved themselves capable of filling the five channels, high, against an opposition’s back four by building in a three and pushing their left-back very high. This is a feature of their play that is likely to continue in the knockout rounds.

Overall, there is a great deal to look forward in the knockout stages, which will get underway on Friday with Tunisia and Oman going head-to-head at Education City Stadium.