Will Chelsea or Palmeiras step in to history?

The 2021 FIFA Club World Cup™ final takes place at the 40,000 seater Mohammed Bin Zayed stadium in Abu Dhabi on Saturday 12th February.

CONMEBOL Copa Libertadores champions, Palmeiras, will contest this year's final with UEFA Champions League winners Chelsea, in what promises to be an enthralling encounter.

Our Technical Study Group (TSG) have observed every minute of every match in the competition so far and have analysed both teams to identify where the key opportunities within the tactical approaches, could prove to be crucial.

Palmeiras entered the competition at the semi-final stage, defeating CAF champions, Al Ahly 2-0 courtesy of two well-worked, yet similar goals.

Having set up with four at the back against Al Ahly's 3-4-3 system, both goals were scored from counter-attacks after Palmeiras won back possession from mid-block defending.

Palmeiras' two-man midfield partnership of (28) Danilo and (8) Ze Rafael often saw Danilo in the holding/screening position with Ze Rafael operating with a more box-to-box role.

The pace and technical excellence displayed by their front four players makes them an exciting attacking team.

Alberto Zaccheroni attended Palmeiras' victory over Al Ahly and feels the Brazilian side are a team that can absorb and withstand pressure due to the strength of the character of their players. He noted the technical ability in their team, particularly how their attacking players can execute high-quality technique at high speed.

"Their ability to hit you on the counter with great numbers, suddenly moving the ball forward into attacking midfield, where their best players operate is dangerous for their opponent. Their wingers come inside as well to pack out the pitch while at the same time, the full-backs push on. This really gives them a lot of unpredictability when building their attacks," noted the former AC Milan manager.

Chelsea progressed to the final after navigating a 1-0 victory over Saudi Arabian side, Al Hilal in the semi-final. Thomas Tuchel’s side lined up in their favoured 3-4-3 formation against Al Hilal’s 4-2-3-1. The Chelsea manager was based in London after testing positive for Covid-19 but was in constant contact with his analysts in the media tribune throughout the match.

Romelu Lukaku scored the game’s only goal. He led their three-man forward line which was supported by their two centre midfielders. When attacking, Chelsea’s wing-backs played very high, ensuring they always had five players occupying five channels.

Their three centre-backs always supported their build-up play and often stepped in with the ball.

Having assessed Chelsea's performance against Al Hilal, Steve McClaren gives his thoughts on how the reigning European champions like to play. 

Palmeiras attack

In their regular build-up, Palmeiras demonstrated they are a patient team and have a lot of character. They have players who read the game very well and are effective at maintaining a balanced defensive structure, with numerical superiority should they lose the ball when building their attacks.

When building, they wanted to control the game. Not until the situations they were trying to create were evident, would they play vertically, when attempting to progress their attacks.

Our TSG noted they preferred to only commit one full-back to their attacking play, meaning if the right-back advanced high, then their left-back remained deeper and connected to his centre-backs.

Alberto Zaccheroni believes the way Palmeiras approach their play in the wide areas could be a key component to disrupting Chelsea's defence. 

Chelsea defensive vulnerability

Chelsea's 3-4-3 system is similar to the 3-4-3 employed by Al Ahly against Palmeiras and the TSG noted how Al Hilal (4-2-3-1) also utilised the wide areas, especially their full-backs, to attempt to create numerical overloads against the Chelsea wing-backs.

Our technical experts see the management of the wide areas as a key factor in how both teams can affect the game.

Palmeiras counter-attack

Whilst Palmeiras could build attacks through creating overloads and good technical play, they were also extremely effective and powerful at counter-attacking.

Palmeiras defeated Al Ahly in the semi-final by two goals to nil with both goals coming from counter-attacks.

Alberto Zaccheroni noted: "Both goals have come from transition in mid-block, with an aggressive press and early balls forward. They can play one touch to open up the opposition and have the technical skill and pace to be extremely dangerous." 

Counterpressing to counter-attack

Palmeiras were disciplined in keeping compact distances between their units in their out-of-possession shape when pressing.

Crucially though, they maintained a strong 'rest defence' or defined structure behind the ball when they were attacking. This meant they could counterpress aggressively as a team unit also.

During their semi-final clash with Al Ahly, Palmeiras directly regained the ball 35 times in open play. However, when we dig deeper into this number, it emerges that 40% of all Palmeiras' direct regains came from counterpressures.

Zaccheroni was impressed with this approach and believes similar could be effective when they take on Chelsea.

"This might be what we see against Chelsea. It could be a crucial solution for Palmeiras because they have skilful forwards not big physical forwards. Agility and skills are their main tools."

Chelsea rest defence

In order to prevent a team counter-attacking against you, it is important for a team to maintain a "rest defence."

The term directly relates to your team's structure, behind your attack so that should you lose possession, then you are ready to defend against a counterattack.

Here, Steve McClaren explains what a rest defence is and how important it will be for the team that wins this final:

Please follow this link for an explanation of "pushing on" within the FIFA Football Language.

Chelsea's five-channel attack

A clear pattern in Chelsea’s attacking play was their desire to fill the five channels of the pitch in their attempts to stretch Al Hilal’s back four.

Chelsea always want to maintain width in their play. With three forward players, they expect their wing-backs to join the attack and create width.

Or, they ask for their wide forwards to provide the width allowing their wing-backs to operate centrally in the attack, thus occupying the five channels. From there, they look to penetrate space behind or in between the opposition’s defensive lines to create goal-scoring opportunities.

A key component of how Chelsea play, is their ability to create a four-man box in midfield to dominate teams centrally. The relationship between their two centre midfielders and their two inside forwards is crucial.

Technical expert, Steve McClaren explains how he expects Chelsea to use this in the final, especially to get centre forward Lukaku involved in the game. However, having observed the semi-final, McClaren noted a subtle change in Al-Hilal's second-half approach, which could be a tactic that Palmeiras could adopt.

Another way that Chelsea achieve numerical superiority to break lines, is by encouraging the player on the ball to step in with the ball.

(8) Kovacic and (4) Christensen were most effective for Chelsea with five step ins each during the match. After just one game, both players are ranked joint third for step ins in the tournament.

For Palmeiras to negate Chelsea’s ability to play into Lukaku, the role of their defensive midfielder will be absolutely crucial.

Alberto Zaccheroni saw evidence in how Palmeiras played against Al Ahly, to suggest they could be effective in screening the space in front of the Chelsea forward and preventing passes into his feet. In (28) Danilo, the Brazilian side have a talented young midfielder, who impressed Zaccheroni greatly.

Palmeiras

Palmeiras goalkeeper Weverton, is a highly experienced and respected goalkeeper. As first choice for his club he is also a Brazil international, competing in the national team squad with two outstanding goalkeepers, Liverpool’s Alisson, and Manchester City’s Ederson.

Pascal Zuberbühler has keenly analysed Weverton's impact for his team and whilst he did not have a significant number of saves to make in the semi-final victory over Al Ahly, it was noted that his distribution is a key factor in the Palmeiras game plan.

"He likes to play fast, exceptionally long balls particularly to their forward player (10) Rony who is not very tall but is challenging for every single ball. Then Palmeiras hunt for the second balls," commented Zuberbühler.

Weverton’s goal-kick on his six-yard line is exceptional as it can land almost at the edge of the opponent’s 18-yard box beyond the opposition’s defensive line. Palmeiras can play through the lines, but the long ball is a very viable and dangerous weapon, especially with the pace, technique and speed of play from their forward players. 

Please follow this link for an explanation of "final unit" within the FIFA Football Language.

Chelsea

Chelsea come into the final with the luxury of having two in-form, world-class goalkeepers to choose from.

Kepa Arrizabalaga has been a regular starter for the reigning UEFA champions for the past number of weeks and made two crucial saves in their semi-final victory over Al Hilal.

Kepa has gained the confidence of his teammates and has been showing good form since taking up the goalkeeping responsibilities in the absence of regular first-choice keeper, Eduoard Mendy, who has just returned to the Chelsea camp having won the African Cup of Nations with Senegal.

Mendy was also named the best FIFA men’s goalkeeper for 2021, which means manager Thomas Tuchel has a big decision to make regarding the first name that goes on the team sheet for the Club World Cup final, which neither Chelsea nor Palmeiras have previously won.

Pascal Zuberbühler says both Kepa and Mendy will want to start Saturday’s final, and that it must be that way. That level of intention and desire must come from both shot stoppers ahead of every game and in every training session and is something that must be managed carefully by the goalkeeping coach.

A fascinating encounter awaits but who will find the little margins and where will they be conceded or gained?

Neither Palmeiras nor Chelsea have won a FIFA Club World Cup™ title before. On Saturday, one of the two will change their history.