Changing the momentum of a game: Australia 6-5 Zambia

The FIFA Technical Study Group and Football Performance Insights Team are observing every game at the Olympic Football Tournament, and they were in attendance at the women’s second-round group stage match that saw Australia come from 5-2 down in the 56^th minute to take an improbable 6-5 victory.

Zambia’s transition-based strategy saw them power into a three-goal lead, but Australia’s reaction, initiated by a triple substitution in the 57^th minute, proved to be game-changing. In this article, Gemma Grainger takes us through the tactical approaches and key moments that produced an epic footballing drama.

In the first half, Zambia set up to press Australia’s build-up aggressively using a 4-4-2-based, player-orientated pressing strategy. As soon as they won the ball back, they counter-attacked with immense pace and power, always driving straight towards the goal and never turning back. Centre-forwards Barbra Banda (11) and Mupopo Kabange (9) were sought out early on transition to attack, and often positioned themselves so they could isolate opposition defenders 1v1.

The Barbra Banda factor

According to Grainger, “Most defenders struggle against Barbra Banda when isolated in 1v1 situations because of her speed, variety of movement to come to the ball and also make runs in behind, with and without the ball. It’s difficult for them know whether to stay and gain a yard if she gets a run at them, or to step in closer to her to try to win the ball when isolated against her. When she is running at or in behind defences, she is a major threat. The other forward players who join in the counter-attacks are also very fast, direct and strong ball carriers. 

“The alternative to trying to deal with Banda when she has the ball is to stop it at source and prevent it getting to her, but Zambia have become very good at playing forward immediately after their possession regains, preventing opponents from getting the opportunity to initiate a counter-press,” she explains.

Fast transitions 

A key part of Zambia’s strategy was to make the game transition-based, and to stop their opponents from building attacking patterns of play. This observation is confirmed by FIFA’s match data, which shows that Zambia spent 32% of their out-of-possession time in attacking transition. Their strategy is also reflected in the fact that the ball was “in contest” (i.e., neither team had controlled possession of the ball) for 16% of this game (Note: These are respectively the highest proportions of time spent in the attacking transition and in-contest phases of any game in the tournament so far).

Grainger has selected the two clips below to highlight Zambia’s approach in the opening half:

“In clip 1, we can see their player-orientated press which makes it difficult to identify their formation. The players press aggressively in isolation and this speeds up the opposition’s passing, so they can anticipate that an opportunity to turn over the ball will come. They regain possession high and are extremely direct as they power towards goal. Although Rachael Kundananji (17) scores, Banda’s supporting run is key because Australia’s right centre-back, Alanna Kennedy (14), is concerned about her running into the space behind her and this split-second hesitation delays her from coming across to the ball-carrying Kundananji.

“In clip 2 we see a transition to attack from a deeper position. Zambia win the ball in their own defensive third and immediately their intention is to play forward. The speed of the forward runs to support Banda’s progressive ball carry are just so difficult for defenders to track. Again, we see the deliberate ploy of isolating defenders in 1v1’s,” Grainger explained.

At 5-2 down in the 57^th minute, Australia head coach Tony Gustavsson made a triple substitution, bringing on Michelle Heyman (2), Kaitlyn Torpey (3), and Clare Wheeler (17). Australia scored just 18 seconds later, with all three substitutes heavily involved in the build-up to the goal.

As Grainger explained, “The substitutions and tactical tweaks made by Gustavsson really changed the momentum of the game and it was fascinating to observe. In the first half, Australia tried to dictate the game through Kyra Cooney-Cross (8) but this was playing into Zambia’s hands because they were anticipating this and orchestrating their press accordingly. In fact, early in the game, Australia got most success when they played forward early, but after going 5-2 down, they started to match Zambia’s high-intensity game, played forward quicker, and got in behind earlier.”

Catley’s change of role

In the first half of this game, Australia captain Steph Catley (7) played as an orthodox left-back. She was tasked with getting high and wide in her team’s build-up play, with forwards Caitlin Foord (9) and Mary Fowler (11) coming across to her side of the pitch to lock in Zambia’s right-sided defenders. At the same time, Emily van Egmond (10) was dropping deep to try to distort Zambia’s midfield and defensive lines. Australia’s tactic of trying to overload on their attacking left side is clearly visible in the images below.

While Australia gained some success from this approach in the first 56 minutes of the game, Catley’s role changed after the triple substitution. as Grainger explains:

“After the substitutions, Catley played in a more inverted position when Australia were building play, with forward Mary Fowler (11) pulling wider towards the touchline and occupying the right-back. This can be seen in clip 4 below, with winger Caitlin Foord (9) locked on to Zambia’s right centre-back, Michelle Heyman (2) occupying the left centre-back, and Kaitlin Torpey (3) accounting for the left-back. Moving Foord more central and going 4v4 against their backline, and effectively creating four 1v1’s, helped to isolate Zambia’s defenders and gave more access to the space in behind. When Catley offered to receive the ball in this area, she was very proactive at moving to receive in space, and she released the ball early to give her teammates opportunities to run in behind.”

With Catley playing narrower and Foord playing more central, Zambia were pinned in, forcing their defenders to make different decisions and making it harder for them to execute the high press that they unleashed to such devastating effect in the first half.

After Australia scored to make it 5-3, the intensity of their play stepped up a gear. To quantify exactly how much, we asked our Football Performance Insights Team to separate the match data from before and after the triple substitution (0-56 minutes vs 57-90+9 minutes) to reveal exactly how the momentum of the game changed after the Matildas adjusted their tactics. 

The momentum shifts

Momentum is an intangible but potentially decisive factor in the ebb and flow of football matches, and it can change at any moment as a result of an intervention, incident or game-changing event. These events can break the momentum of a team at any time – whether that momentum is positive or negative.

As we see in the graphic below, comparing Australia’s statistics for the first 56 minutes against the remaining 33+ minutes shows a notable increase in the attacking momentum of Tony Gustavsson’s team in the latter part of the match. For example, in the first 56 minutes, they completed 12 defensive line breaks, whereas in the shorter block of time after the substitutions, they completed 10, executing more line breaks per minute than in the previous portion of the game. The figures for receptions in behind Zambia’s defensive line illustrate an identical trend.

Their rate of final third entries also increased after the 56^th minute and they attempted more crosses from open play in this part of game, too.

As Grainger explains, “After that goal to make it 5-3, the momentum changed. Three minutes later, Australia had a goal ruled out following a VAR review, but just four minutes later, they scored again, so on 65 minutes it was 5-4 and all to play for. Australia were strong on set plays and while Zambia will reflect on some defensive errors, you could see the change in belief among Gustavsson’s players. Australia had positive momentum and Zambia were struggling to regain their earlier defensive composure.” 

With 12 mins remaining, Catley scored from a penalty kick (following a really positive attacking phase of play) to level the game at 5-5. The winning goal came in the 90^th minute from substitute Heyman, with Catley providing the assist.

“The build-up to the winning goal typified the change in Australia’s intensity,” Grainger explained. “As we see in clip 5 below, the speed, aggression and discipline in their press and counter-press was at a high level, bearing in mind this was the 90^th minute of an energy-sapping game. 

“As soon as they win the ball back, they play forward, and Catley receives, in space, in the inverted position. Australia have four players ahead of the ball, this time with positional advantages against Zambia’s distorted back line. As Heyman receives the ball in behind, she guides the ball into the net with a first-touch finish, showing real composure in a huge moment for her team,” she added.    

Zambia’s player-orientated pressing game facilitated strong, fast counter-attacks that allowed them to play to the strengths of their forward players.  This was perfect for Barbra Banda, who scored a hat-trick and provided an assist to propel the African side to a seemingly unassailable 5-2 lead. At the same time, the transitional nature of the game prevented Australia from getting a possession-based foothold. 

However, a triple substitution proved to be the catalyst that would change the game and swing the momentum in Australia’s favour. In addition to the personnel changes, Australia Head Coach Tony Gustavsson switched to a more attacking approach to target the space behind Zambia’s defence more quickly, and changed the role of left-back Steph Catley. These factors, coupled with moving to Foord to a more central position, helped Australia to up the intensity of their play both in and out of possession, and transformed the course of the match. The Matildas went on to score four goals in 33 minutes to record a famous 6-5 win.