Part 1: How important is possession?

What influence does possession have over winning football matches? How do teams use possession? And what are the characteristics, opportunities and risks of possession? The following introduction lays out a three-part analysis seeking to understand the role of keeping control of the ball in the beautiful game.

The question of whether having more possession increases a team’s chances of winning a football match is a hot topic among football coaches worldwide. It is also a heavily contested field in the world of football analytics. There are conflicting beliefs forming part of this discussion, with some people believing a team is more likely to win if they have higher ball possession, while others arguing that there is no meaningful connection between possession and winning.

Different viewpoints

Those who support the idea that ball possession leads to success in football put forward several arguments. One claim is that teams with higher possession percentages have greater control over the game. This control allows them to dictate the rhythm of play, move the ball into advanced areas of the pitch, and create more goal-scoring opportunities. Another claim is that maintaining possession reduces the opponent’s time on the ball, effectively limiting their ability to create goal-scoring opportunities.

Those against the notion that possession brings success argue an overemphasis on possession can lead to a lack of directness in attack, with teams prioritizing sideways or backward passes over meaningful progression towards the opponent’s goal. Furthermore, possession can make a team vulnerable to quick counter-attacks, which can be more decisive in terms of goals scored due to the higher quality of chances they create. The idea that “football is not about keeping hold of the ball, it’s about what you do with it” encapsulates this second line of thought.

Tournament observations

(1/4) Argentina demonstrated remarkable tactical versatility, employing various strategies throughout the tournament. Despite their proficiency in possession-based play, the eventual World Cup winners chose a more defensive-orientated approach against Croatia, conceding more possession to their opposition (34.4% v. 53% possession). This decision proved effective, leading Argentina to a resounding victory of 3-0.

(2/4) Morocco’s remarkable victory over Spain in the knockout stage of the tournament serves as a prime example of the success that can be achieved by teams employing a defensive strategy. Despite Spain’s overwhelming possession dominance (68% compared to Morocco’s 22%), Morocco showcased their defensive prowess by keeping a clean sheet. This victory underscores the difficulties that possession-dominant teams can encounter when facing tactically astute and defensively solid opponents.

(3/4) The FIFA Women’s World Cup Australia & New Zealand 2023™ presented a different narrative, where Spain, the eventual champions, showcased their success by adopting a possession-based strategy throughout the tournament. In all seven of their matches, including the final against England, Spain maintained a significantly higher possession percentage than their opponents.

(4/4) However, possession-dominant strategies did not always guarantee success in the women’s competition. Spain’s encounter with Japan in the group stage serves as a prime example. Despite enjoying a significant share of possession (68% compared to Japan’s 22%), Spain faced difficulties in penetrating Japan’s defensive tactics and were exposed to swift counter-attacks. As a result, Spain suffered a surprising 4-0 defeat.

These different beliefs were also reflected in the initial observations from both the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022™ and the FIFA Women’s World Cup Australia & New Zealand 2023™. While possession-dominant teams seemed to achieve considerable success in the women’s competition, they appeared less effective in the men’s tournament. On the other hand, defensive styles of play looked to be yielding better results in the men’s tournament compared to the women’s. These perceived differences have piqued our curiosity, leading to a three-part analysis on the specific outcomes at the men’s and women’s FIFA World Cups, and the role of possession in football more generally.

Aim

Part 1 of the analysis aims to investigate the intricate relationship between possession and winning matches. Specifically, we will delve into the connections between possession, attempts, and the number of matches won. The discussion is structured into four sub-themes, each addressing a specific aspect of this relationship.

Theme 1: The relationship between possession and matches won
Theme 2: The relationship between attempts and matches won
Theme 3: The relationship between possession and attempts
Theme 4: The relationship between possession, attempts and matches won

In part 2, we delve into team profiles and the strategic use of possession. We will investigate the consistency with which teams adopt a certain share of possession and how their chosen role impacts their success in winning against different opponents. Lastly, in part 3, we will examine the characteristics, opportunities, and risks associated with having more or less possession in a match. Here, we will explore the tactical scenarios that teams with different ranges of possession must master and identify the factors that differentiate winners from losers. Like part 1, these sections will be divided into themes.

(Click here to continue)