Part 1.5: Conclusion - FIFA Training Centre

After considering all four themes of inquiry, the following section draws some conclusions and presents practical takeaways relevant to football more generally.

The findings from the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022™ and the FIFA Women’s World Cup Australia & New Zealand 2023™ suggest that there is no specific share of possession that increases the likelihood of winning on its own. It has been observed that both possession-based and defensive styles of play can lead to success, depending on the circumstances and the execution of these strategies. This statistically supported discovery can be encouraging for teams that are considered less dominant, as the results suggest that they can achieve equal success. Conversely, teams that dominate possession should take this as a warning sign that their superiority with the ball does not automatically translate into a higher probability of winning.

Key statistic one

In Qatar, teams with less possession won slightly more games (26 wins vs. 23), highlighting the relative success of defensive styles in the competition. The most successful category in terms of points per game was when teams had a possession deficit of 15% to 30%, averaging an impressive 1.68 points per game (PPG).

Key statistic two

The contrasting nature of the women's tournament in Australia and New Zealand is underlined by the fact that out of the 16 knockout games, 12 were won by the team with more possession. The most successful category in this case was when teams had a positive possession differential of 30%, averaging an impressive 2.48 PPG.

Key statistic three

Another interesting observation is that teams with more attempts than the opposition were generally more successful, winning 50% (1.73 PPG) of the matches in Qatar and 56% (1.92 PPG) in Australia and New Zealand.

Key statistic four

The higher the attempt differential, the greater the chance of winning. This is evident as the most successful group in both tournaments were the teams that outshot their opponents by the greatest margin, winning 75% and 76% of their games respectively.

Key statistic five

Possession is only a moderate predictor of net attempts, explaining 36% (R² = 0.36) of the variance in attempts in Qatar and 56% (R² = 0.56) of the variance in Australia and New Zealand.

Key statistic six

In the men's tournament, teams were most successful when they had less possession but managed to create more attempts, averaging 1.95 PPG. On the other hand, in the women's competition, teams were most successful when they had both more possession and attempts than their opponents, averaging 2.12 PPG.

The findings also suggest that a team’s probability of winning increases when their tactical approach involves a strong focus on both finishing attacks and preventing the opponent from doing so. This holds true regardless of the team’s possession share, emphasising that all tactical approaches ultimately aim to achieve the same end goal: scoring goals and preventing the opponent from scoring. A useful measure for assessing a team’s commitment to these fundamental objectives is the net attempts they register in a game. Based on the results, it appears that finding the right balance between the quality and quantity of goal-scoring opportunities is crucial. It is important to note that a lack of directness in creating attempts can potentially hinder performance. In fact, the higher the net attempts a team register, the higher their chances of securing a victory. Therefore, it is evident that both the quality and quantity of chances created play significant roles in determining success.

When analysing each tournament separately, we can observe distinct strengths and weaknesses in both the men’s and women’s game. While possession-dominant teams have achieved success in the women’s competition, they have shown relatively less effectiveness in the men’s tournament. Conversely, defensive styles of play have yielded better results in the men’s tournament compared to the women’s. However, it is important to note that these observations should probably be seen as a temporary phenomenon rather than a universal truth. Football is a constantly evolving sport, often cyclical in nature. Tactical trends come and go as teams continue to adapt and evolve their strategies to stay competitive. The results of this study indicate that teams in the men’s competition are currently lagging behind in effective ball possession strategies, while teams in the women’s competition need to develop more effective solutions when applying a low-possession approach.

Outlook

In conclusion, the outcome of a match is not solely determined by the amount of possession a team has, but rather by their effectiveness in executing the tasks associated with their respective shares of possession. In part 3, we will conduct a comprehensive analysis of these tasks and explore the unique characteristics of different shares of possession. Specifically, we will examine the amount of time teams with different shares of possession spend in various phases of play, identify the opportunities and risks associated with these styles of play, and determine the disparities between winners and losers.

However, before delving into this field, part 2 will explore the possession profiles of the teams which competed at the most recent FIFA World Cup and FIFA Women’s World Cup. We will analyse the average amount of possession they had, their consistency in adopting either a possession-based or a defensive style of play, and how the opponent and their ability to maintain possession impacted the team’s possession. This analysis will provide valuable insights into the strategic use of possession and the factors influencing it.

(Click here to continue to part 2)